Fix the CFP

A 12-team field leaves too much to chance. Statistical analysis from 538 shows that a 16-team bracket captures the best team roughly 95% of the time, compared to ~90% for 12 teams. The marginal cost of four more games is small; the marginal benefit in legitimacy is significant.

For comparison: March Madness includes 17.6% of Division I basketball teams. Applied to FBS football's ~134 teams, that percentage would mean ~24 teams. So if 16 is better than 12, why not 24? Diminishing returns. Per the earlier statistical analysis, teams ranked #17-24 each have less than a 1% chance of being the best team in the country. Adding games yields little gain in legitimacy of the champion. A 24-team bracket would also require eight byes, reintroducing the rust problem. A 16-team field is the sweet spot.

The 5+11 format (five automatic qualifiers for conference champions plus eleven at-large bids) is backed by Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, and Notre Dame AD Pete Bevacqua. It has 10 of 11 votes on the CFP governing committee, with only the Big Ten holding out. Conference politics shouldn't determine who plays for a championship.

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti's proposal would allow an 8-4 team (6-3 in conference) to make the playoff as the 6th-place Big Ten team. His justification: ".667 winning percentage makes playoffs in every other sport." But this turns September into NFL preseason. Just stay healthy and finish top-6 in your conference. It's a system designed to guarantee Big Ten/SEC revenue, not to crown the best team.

A rankings-based system rewards programs in any conference that invest and compete. Boise State finished 9th in 2024 and would make a top-16 field. Indiana was a program with one of the worst historical records in college football. Using the transfer portal and NIL, Curt Cignetti won the Big Ten and led Indiana to their first #1 AP ranking. Utah athletics made a $500M deal with a private equity firm. These tools and other creative ideas are available to any program willing to invest.

In 2025, TNT broadcast the #5-12 and #6-11 first-round games. Under the current system with automatic qualifiers, they broadcast Tulane and James Madison. Under a top-16 format, those same slots would have been Oregon vs. BYU and Ole Miss vs. Alabama. Better matchups, better TV.

2025 first-round viewership proved the point: Alabama-Oklahoma drew 14.9 million viewers on ABC/ESPN, Miami-Texas A&M drew 14.8 million. Meanwhile, Ole Miss-Tulane on TNT drew 6.2 million and Oregon-James Madison drew 4.4 million. Group of 5 matchups delivered less than half the audience of Power 4 matchups.

ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit proposed requiring conference champions to reach a certain ranking to qualify. This feels like a half-measure: it adds complexity while still not selecting the top teams. Under the current system, a conference champion ranked outside the top 25 can still make the playoff. Why patch a system built around exceptions? Just select the top 16.

That already exists: the FCS playoffs. A rankings-based system doesn't block anyone. Formally excluding conferences likely faces antitrust scrutiny, and upsets are part of what makes college football great.

The committee has financial conflicts of interest. Its members are affiliated with the schools and conferences who benefit from being selected. They make decisions behind closed doors with a dozen or so voters.

Yes, AP voters have biases too: toward teams in regions they cover, toward brands they follow closely. But those biases are smoothed out across 60+ independent journalists, not concentrated in a small room of stakeholders. The AP has published weekly rankings in newspapers for decades. Fans understand it. It's transparent, familiar, and respected.

There are probably more accurate computer systems: ELO, QBERT, WOOKIE. Did I just make up some of those names? You're not sure, and that's the point. Most fans don't understand or trust algorithmic rankings. In the age of AI, going with something human feels traditional and fitting for a sport that goes back more than 150 years.

The weekly rankings show is lucrative, entertaining, and generates discussion. The problem isn't the show; it's the committee being responsible for the rankings. You could still have a show around the AP poll release. Interview different journalists and voters to hear their reasoning. Same entertainment value, less backroom dealing.

The remaining teams in the 2025 top 25 that would miss the CFP: Tulane (17), Michigan (18), James Madison (19), Virginia (20), Arizona (21), Navy (22), North Texas (23), Georgia Tech (24), Missouri (25). Three from the American, two from the ACC, one each from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Sun Belt.

Conference championships drew huge audiences in 2025: 18.3 million for the Big Ten, 16.9 million for the SEC, 9 million for the Big 12. But CFP first-round games averaged 10.9 million viewers each. A 16-team playoff has eight first-round games instead of four, doubling the inventory. More first-round playoff games could generate comparable or greater viewership than the conference championships they replace, with less injury risk to the stars who drive ratings in the quarterfinals, semifinals, and championship.

The CFP should require conference membership for eligibility. Only two FBS programs remain independent: Notre Dame and UConn. The other 132 FBS teams operate within conferences. If you want to be eligible for the playoff, join one.

This doesn't contradict rankings-based selection. The AP poll determines who gets selected from the eligible pool. Conference membership determines who's in the pool.

Notre Dame is already contractually obligated to join the ACC if they join any conference before 2037. This would give the ACC 18 teams and a 9-game conference schedule like the other power conferences.

Notre Dame's NBC deal (worth ~$50M/year through 2029) isn't a barrier. Unlike full ACC members, Notre Dame never signed the conference's Grant of Rights for football. The ACC could offer full membership while allowing Notre Dame to keep NBC for home games and receive ACC revenue for road games. Two TV revenue streams instead of one.

One tradition worth preserving: Army-Navy. The game falls the weekend before the CFP begins, the only college football on the schedule. The march-ons, mutual respect, players who chose service: it's a unique game that reminds us to think about something larger.

That same evening, expand the Heisman ceremony into a regular season-ending awards show. Each conference commissioner recognizes their champion with highlights and campus celebrations. Crown the Heisman at the end. Prediction markets have killed award-show suspense anyway. By Selection Sunday, the winner is 95%+ certain. Make it a celebration of the season, not a reveal.

The bowl assignments are locked based on original seeding, not game outcomes. If #16 USC beats #1 Indiana, USC still travels to the Sugar Bowl. This is how March Madness works: regions are fixed, and Cinderella teams travel to the higher seed's assigned venue. The reward for top seeds is proximity, not a guarantee of winning.

Moving the recruiting window creates incentives to wait. If players can't commit until February, schools gain little by hiring a coach in December. Instead, everyone benefits from patience: schools can evaluate how coaches perform in the playoffs, coaches can finish their seasons without distraction, and hiring decisions are made with better information.

Five of twelve. Ole Miss's Lane Kiffin left for LSU; the Rebels promoted Pete Golding rather than let Kiffin coach the playoff. Others took new jobs but are still coaching: James Madison's Bob Chesney (UCLA), Tulane's Jon Sumrall (Florida), Oregon's coordinators Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal), and Texas A&M's coordinators Collin Klein (Kansas State) and Jay Bateman (Kentucky). Split focus, divided loyalties.

Bowl games already struggle with opt-outs and declining attendance. Moving them to Week 1 gives them a fresh identity: high-profile season openers with full rosters. The new calendar flows naturally: CFP Championship in late January, recruiting window in February, bowl matchups announced in spring, bowls played as openers in late August.

Let the market figure it out. Conferences, teams, bowls, and broadcasters negotiate in the spring to maximize their own goals: viewership, brand alignment, fan travel, alumni bases, competitive balance. An athletic director at a championship-contending program might schedule a confidence-building opener against a beatable opponent in a location where fans will travel. A rebuilding program might seek a marquee matchup for national exposure. The free market can work this out better than the current quirky bowl system.